Gavekal Capital: Median Company Estimated Growth Slumps to Lowest Level Since 2013

Monday, January 12, 2015

Median Company Estimated Growth Slumps to Lowest Level Since 2013

Following up on our earlier post today regarding estimate revisions, we thought we'd point out that both top and bottom line growth estimates have continued to fall in recent weeks and are at levels not seen since early 2013. In the below charts we show the next twelve month sales (blue line) and EPS (red line) growth estimates for the median company in the respective index.

For the MSCI World Index, estimated sales growth has fallen to a paltry 3% while EPS growth is a meager 8%. From a regional perspective, the median company in the Pacific region has actually seen a pickup in estimated growth while estimated growth for the median company in Europe remains weak. Most striking, however, is that growth estimates (top and bottom line) for North America are at levels not seen since 2009, and this in the region that is supposed to have reached escape velocity.

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