Gavekal Capital: Commercial Traders Are Hedged The Most Ever Against Further Euro Depreciation

Monday, March 30, 2015

Commercial Traders Are Hedged The Most Ever Against Further Euro Depreciation

Commercial hedgers (i.e smart money) aren't buying that the precipitous decline in the euro against the dollar has come to an end. In fact, that latest Commitment of Traders report (March 27th) shows the largest net long position in the dollar against the euro since 2000 even as the euro has "rebounded" back to 1.09 from 1.05. The current hedged level surpasses the level hit in June 2012 when the dollar was sitting at a lofty 1.21 against the euro. The net commercial position tends to reverse course just before the exchange rate does. Examples in the chart below can be seen in 2008, 2010 and 2012. Thus, it will be worthwhile keeping tabs on this series to when the euro may begin to appreciate in earnest again against the USD.

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Gavekal Capital is a US registered investment advisory firm that manages the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Strategy. Knowledge Leaders are a group of the world’s leading innovators with deep reservoirs of intangible capital. These companies often possess competitive advantages such as strong brand, proprietary knowledge or a unique distribution mechanism. Knowledge Leaders are largely service-based and advanced manufacturing businesses, often operating globally. Gavekal Capital seeks to identify the world’s leading knowledge companies through a proprietary process that analyzes corporate knowledge investments.
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