Gavekal Capital: Divergence: German Construction Output versus Construction PMI

Thursday, April 9, 2015

Divergence: German Construction Output versus Construction PMI

Historically, there has been a fairly strong relationship in the trends of German construction output and the results of Markit's PMI Construction survey.  However, yesterday's positive data release of the construction PMI painted a much different picture of the sector than today's release of industrial (and construction) ouput:

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While this could be a temporary aberration, our interest is always peaked when survey or opinion data differ significantly from solid, fact-based numbers.